By Rola Hamdan, Luxury real estate and mortgage broker in Montreal. Last updated: March 17, 2026.
The Bank of Canada announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. (Eastern Time). The official statement and the Governor’s remarks are published at the same time on the Bank of Canada website.
This is the second announcement of the year. Financial markets and most economists are expecting a hold at 2.25%.
Montreal, March 17 – The Bank of Canada’s March 18, 2026 interest rate announcement is widely expected to confirm that the policy rate remains unchanged at 2.25%, with accompanying guidance shaped by soft economic data and inflation remaining near target.
Financial markets and economists generally anticipate a continued pause on rate changes through most of 2026, absent compelling inflationary pressure. This expected outcome has direct implications for mortgage rates, borrowing costs, and the greater Montreal housing market.
I’m expecting a hold. The recent data all points in the same direction: inflation is back near target, employment is slowing, and trade uncertainty with the US is weighing on business investment. The Bank has no reason to move right now.
For my clients, that translates into three things:
Three factors back the pause:
Inflation is under control. Canadian CPI is back near the Bank’s 1 to 3% target, and core inflation measures are easing.
The labour market is losing steam. Job growth is slower, which eases wage pressure and, in turn, pressure on prices.
The global picture is still uncertain. Trade tensions and geopolitical risk justify caution. Moving the rate right now would add noise where the Bank is trying to provide stability.
If you’re a homeowner
If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, you’re working with a predictable environment. Compare fixed and variable rate options with your mortgage broker based on your actual risk profile, not on a hypothetical rate drop.
For refinancing, plan around the rates available today. A significant short-term drop isn’t guaranteed.
If you’re a buyer
Lender rates shouldn’t see major swings over the next few weeks. Use the window to get pre-qualified and shop your conditions.
Build a buffer into your budget anyway. Bank margins and qualification rules can shift independently of the policy rate.
If you’re an investor
Stable rates make it easier to evaluate net yields and cash flow. In Montreal, rental demand remains supported by population growth and a tight supply in several sectors, which underpins long-term rental investment.
Scenario A: rate hold (most likely)
The policy rate stays at 2.25%. Mortgage rates settle. The Greater Montreal real estate market stays active, without a price spike.
Scenario B: more hawkish tone
If inflation picks back up, the Bank could hint at a future hike. Mortgage rates would tick up and trim buyer purchasing power.
Scenario C: door opens to a cut later in 2026
If growth slows further and unemployment climbs, the Bank could signal an easing later in the year. That would be good news for borrowing accessibility.
Review mortgage expiry dates and consult lenders about current fixed versus variable pricing.
Plan affordability with rate buffers, rather than assuming future rate decreases.
Monitor inflation, employment data, and housing starts quarterly for directional signals.
Incorporate local Montreal metrics (days on market, inventory, price trends) into buying/selling timelines.
Consider diversification of investment properties should long‑term rate risks intensify.
| Key Indicators to Watch After the Announcement | ||
| Indicator | Why it Matters | |
| Inflation (CPI) | Determines pressure on borrowing costs and BoC response | |
| Unemployment Rate | Labour market slack affects demand and wage growth | |
| Housing Starts & Sales | Local housing activity signals demand trends | |
| Mortgage Rate Trajectory | Influences affordability and refinancing decisions | |
| Canadian Dollar (CAD) | FX movements affect foreign investment flows | |
| Consumer Confidence | Guides consumer spending and housing demand | |
The decision is scheduled for March 18, 2026 7h45am eastern time with a press release and accompanying commentary.
A hold suggests mortgage pricing won’t face abrupt changes tied to policy, but credit spreads and lender strategy still matter.
Buyers should forecast affordability conservatively, accounting for lender spreads and stress test conditions even with stable policy rates.
The stress test typically uses a qualifying rate above the posted mortgage rates; unchanged policy rates means the qualifying buffer remains relevant for loan approvals.
For a free property evaluation or full-service support in real estate, financing, and mortgages, contact Rola Hamdan.
Media inquiries: rhamdan@profusion.global
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Residential and commercial real estate broker acting under Profusion Immobilier Inc. Real Estate Agency.
1 Westmount Square #711, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
